The roar of 80,000 fans will shake the San Siro stands on Sunday, November 23, 2025, as Inter Milan and AC Milan collide in the Derby della MadonninaSan Siro — a clash that could redefine the Serie A title race. With both teams sitting in the top three, this isn’t just another derby. It’s a power play. And at the center of it all? Lautaro Martinez, one goal away from joining an elite club of Inter legends who’ve scored 10 times against their city rivals.
The Stakes: Top of the Table, One Win Away
Inter enters the match with 24 points — just one behind leaders Napoli and Roma — after winning 11 of their last 12 matches across all competitions. Their 26 goals scored is the best in Serie A, and their 60% average possession isn’t just control — it’s intimidation. AC Milan, meanwhile, sits third with 22 points from six wins and four draws. They’ve gone unbeaten since opening day, but those four draws in their last six games? That’s not dominance. That’s tension.
Here’s the thing: if Inter wins, they leapfrog both Napoli and Roma. A draw? They stay level with Milan. Lose? AC Milan takes the initiative. This isn’t just about pride. It’s about momentum, psychological edge, and the kind of momentum that carries teams through the final stretch of a grueling campaign.
Lineups: Experience vs. Youth, Firepower vs. Control
Inter’s 3-5-2 is built for dominance. Yann Sommer — 36, still sharp as ever — anchors a backline featuring Manuel Akanji, Francesco Acerbi, and Alessandro Bastoni. In midfield, Nicolo Barella and Hakan Calhanoglu are the heartbeat — one relentless, the other surgical. Up front, Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram form a lethal partnership. Thuram’s fitness is in doubt — he’s training but may start on the bench — which could mean a surprise from Ange-Yoan Bonny, who’s already chipped in with four goals this season.
AC Milan’s lineup is a fascinating blend of age and youth. At 39, Luka Modric — yes, that Modric — is still pulling strings in midfield alongside Adrien Rabiot, who’s back from injury and ready to bring steel. The defense? Solid. Mike Maignan has kept three clean sheets in his last 10 games. But the real story is up front: Rafael Leao and Christian Pulisic. Both have four goals. Both are dangerous. And both are fully fit after minor knocks. Pulisic even skipped the USMNT camp to focus on this match. That tells you everything.
The Numbers Don’t Lie — But They Don’t Tell the Whole Story
Inter averages 5.1 shots on target per game. AC Milan? 3.2. Inter wins 7.4 corners per match. Milan gets 3.0. Five of Milan’s last seven games ended with both teams scoring — and San Siro is no neutral ground. It’s a pressure cooker.
But here’s the twist: stats don’t capture the aura of this fixture. The last time these two met, Inter won 2-1 in dramatic fashion, with Martinez scoring the winner after a 93rd-minute counter. That’s the kind of moment that lingers. That’s the kind of thing that changes how players breathe on the pitch.
And then there’s the Martinez factor. He needs just one more goal to become the third Inter player in history to score 10 times against AC Milan. The other two? Giacinto Facchetti and Ronaldo. You read that right — Ronaldo. The Brazilian legend. That’s the company he’s chasing.
What the Experts Are Saying
Goal.com’s prediction? 1-1. Leao scores for Milan. Martinez answers for Inter. It’s a safe call — but it feels like a cop-out. The betting market agrees: Lautaro Martinez to score or assist is trading at -110 with bet365. That’s not just confidence. That’s belief.
“Inter have the form. Milan have the grit,” said former Milan defender Paolo Maldini in a recent interview. “But derbies aren’t won by form. They’re won by who wants it more. And this season? Everyone wants it.”
AC Milan’s selection headache? Left-back. Davide Bartesaghi, just 19, is favored over veteran Pervis Estupinan. That’s a gamble. A bold one. But in a derby, you don’t play it safe.
The Ripple Effect: Beyond the Three Points
Who wins this? It could decide the title. Inter’s squad depth is superior — they’ve rotated more effectively. But Milan’s squad cohesion, especially in midfield with Modric still orchestrating, is uncanny. If Inter wins, they’ll be five points clear. If Milan draws or wins? The pressure shifts. Napoli and Roma won’t wait. The race tightens. And suddenly, a 2-1 lead in January feels like a mirage.
And let’s not forget the fans. The tifosi. The scarves. The chants echoing from the Curva Nord to the Curva Sud. This isn’t just a match. It’s a ritual. A test of identity. For Inter, it’s about reclaiming their throne. For Milan, it’s about proving they’re not just hanging on — they’re building something.
What’s Next?
If Inter wins, expect them to push for the top spot in the next three matches — against Fiorentina, Lazio, and Juventus. If Milan holds firm? Their next five games include two against top-six sides. The next 30 days will define their season. And it all starts Sunday.
One last note: Denzel Dumfries is a doubt for Inter. If he plays, he’ll add width. If he doesn’t, Dimarco pushes higher — and the left flank becomes a weapon. The details matter.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Lautaro Martinez’s potential 10th goal against AC Milan so significant?
Only two Inter players in history — Giacinto Facchetti and Ronaldo — have scored 10 or more goals against AC Milan in derby matches. Martinez, with nine goals so far, is on the verge of joining that exclusive club. Achieving this would cement his legacy as one of Inter’s greatest modern strikers, especially given the intensity and rarity of derby goals. He’s already the top foreign scorer in derby history.
How does AC Milan’s reliance on Luka Modric at 39 impact their chances?
Modric’s presence gives Milan control in transition and calm under pressure — but he’s not a 90-minute player. His minutes are carefully managed, and his effectiveness drops after 70 minutes. If Inter dominates possession early, Milan’s midfield could tire. Their strategy hinges on Modric’s influence in the first half and Rabiot’s energy in the second. It’s a high-wire act.
What’s the key tactical battle in this match?
It’s the midfield tug-of-war between Inter’s Barella-Calhanoglu duo and Milan’s Modric-Rabiot pairing. Barella presses high and disrupts; Calhanoglu dictates tempo. Modric controls space; Rabiot breaks lines. Whoever wins that battle controls the game. Inter’s width from Dimarco and Augusto could overload Milan’s left flank — especially if Bartesaghi is out of his depth.
Why is the 1-1 draw prediction so popular among analysts?
Because it’s the most statistically likely outcome. Five of Milan’s last seven games saw both teams score, and Inter’s defense has conceded in 7 of their last 10. But both teams are clinical — and neither wants to lose. A draw feels safe, but it’s also a missed opportunity. History shows derbies often have late drama — a goal in the 89th minute, a red card, a penalty. Don’t be surprised if it’s not that simple.
How might Marcus Thuram’s potential bench role affect Inter’s attack?
If Thuram starts on the bench, it suggests Inter’s manager wants to control the tempo early and strike late. Bonny or Frattesi could start, offering more movement and pressing. Thuram’s pace and physicality are best used as a second-half weapon against tired defenders. His impact off the bench could be decisive — especially if Milan pushes forward late looking for a winner.
What does this match mean for the Serie A title race?
A win for Inter puts them at the top with a five-point cushion over Milan and a four-point lead over Napoli and Roma. A draw keeps the race wide open — and gives Milan momentum heading into a tougher schedule. If Milan wins, they leapfrog Inter and put pressure on the top two. This isn’t just three points — it’s a psychological turning point in a season that’s already unpredictable.