When Tage Thompson, center of the Buffalo Sabres steps onto the ice at the Canadian Tire Centre on Wednesday, October 15, 2025, the betting world takes note. Thompson’s Over 3.5 Shots on Goal prop sits at -105 odds, a line that looks tidy after he’s already logged 17 shots on 32 attempts in just three games this season. The why? Ottawa’s penalty trouble – the Senators rank fifth‑highest in penalties per 60 minutes (5.52) after three outings – gives Thompson extra chances, and sportsbooks are betting on that extra traffic.
Context: Early‑Season Trends Shape the Prop Market
Since the NHL kicked off the 2025‑26 regular season on October 10, teams have been scrambling for statistical baselines. Most clubs are only four or five games into the campaign, meaning every power‑play, every Corsi swing, and every shot count as a data point for oddsmakers. As Covers.com noted in a 10:52 AM UTC analysis, the Senators’ penalty frequency mirrors their 2024‑25 season, when they sat ninth in the league for penalties drawn. That continuity fuels the confidence behind Thompson’s prop.
On the west coast, the St. Louis Blues are hosting the Chicago Blackhawks at the Enterprise Center for a 9:30 PM ET showdown. The Blues are -220 favorites, and the game carries the highest projected total on the slate – 6.5 goals, according to FanDuel’s research. This high‑scoring expectation opens a suite of player prop opportunities, chief among them Dylan Holloway’s Over 2.5 Shots on Goal at +120 odds.
Key Player Prop Highlights
- Tage Thompson – Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-105) – Buffalo vs Ottawa.
- Dylan Holloway – Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+120) – St. Louis vs Chicago.
- Connor Bedard – Under 0.5 Points (+110) – Chicago vs St. Louis.
- JJ Peterka – Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+145) – Utah Mammoth (analysis reference) – not on the slate but noted for early‑season form.
- Dylan Guenther – Any‑Time Goal (+250) – Arizona Coyotes – highlighted by FanDuel for his 27‑goal rookie season.
Deep‑Dive: Why Holloway and Bedard Matter
The Dylan Holloway story reads like a betting analyst’s dream. At 23, the forward has already posted 4.3 shots per game and a respectable 2.5‑goal chance per 60 minutes, according to both DraftKings and FanDuel. Liam Fox of Sportsbook Review called out the Blackhawks’ defensive woes – they sit 19th in Corsi against (62.22) and 24th in expected goals against (3.33) after four games – making Holloway’s shot line a logical pick.
On the opposite side, Connor Bedard is facing a “under” line that seems counter‑intuitive for a player who lit up the league in 2024‑25. Yet the Blackhawks are still storm‑trotted late in the standings, and Bedard’s ice time (approximately 19 minutes per game) has dipped early as the coaching staff tries a more balanced line rotation. Sportsbook Review argues that the low‑scoring under 0.5 points prop (+110) could cash if Chicago continues to lean on its defense rather than offense, especially against a Blues squad that’s expected to fire at a 3.7 implied team total.
Stakeholder Perspectives
From a sportsbook angle, DraftKings, BetMGM, and FanDuel all posted odds before the 5:35 PM EDT deadline, each tweaking lines based on the latest Corsi and penalty data. DraftKings’ odds for Thompson have stayed steady at -105, while BetMGM nudged Holloway’s shots line from +115 to +120 after a late‑night report that Chicago’s penalty kill was struggling in practice.
Fans, however, are reacting to the odds with caution. A Reddit thread in the r/NHLBetting community highlighted that early‑season prop volatility is high – a single out‑lier game can swing a player’s shooting percentage dramatically. One user wrote, “Don’t let the over‑3.5 Thompson line blind you; Ottawa’s penalty kill can tighten up after the first week.”
Broader Impact: Betting Trends for the 2025‑26 Season
These prop lines are more than weekend chatter; they signal where sportsbooks expect scoring to cluster as the season unfolds. The high‑total for the Blues‑Blackhawks game, combined with the emphasis on penalty draws in Ottawa, suggests analysts believe the league will see a modest uptick in power‑play opportunities compared to the previous season. If that’s true, prop markets for shots on goal and any‑time goals could become the go‑to playground for casual bettors seeking value beyond traditional moneylines.
Conversely, the under‑prop on Bedard may foreshadow a shift toward defensive‑oriented props, especially for teams still defining their identity early in the schedule. As the data pool expands beyond ten games, we’ll likely see a correction in lines – but for now, the early‑season “noise” offers a fertile ground for sharp bettors who can decode the underlying statistics.
What’s Next: Upcoming Games to Watch
Looking ahead, the next slate on Thursday, October 16, features the New York Rangers vs Boston Bruins, a matchup that could shake up the eastern conference power‑play rankings. Keep an eye on Artemi Panarin for a potential Over 1.5 Goals prop – his shot volume has already eclipsed 5 per game.
Meanwhile, the league’s official Wednesday Night NHL Gamesmultiple venues across North America continue to serve as the testing ground for prop strategies. As the season progresses, expect sportsbooks to fine‑tune lines based on emerging trends in Corsi, penalties, and high‑danger chances.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do Ottawa’s penalty numbers affect Thompson’s prop?
The Senators rank fifth‑highest in penalties per 60 minutes (5.52). More power‑play minutes mean Thompson will see more shot opportunities, making the Over 3.5 Shots on Goal line attractive, especially early in the season when teams haven’t adjusted discipline.
Why is the Blackhawks‑Blues game projected to hit 6.5 total goals?
Both clubs boast high offensive outputs in their first four games, while the Blackhawks’ defensive metrics (Corsi against 62.22, xGA 3.33) remain among the league’s worst. The blend of a potent Blues attack and a leaky Blackhawks defense drives the high total.
Is the Under 0.5 Points prop for Bedard a good bet?
Bedard’s early ice time is limited and Chicago leans on a defensive system. If the Blues dominate possession, Bedard may see fewer scoring chances, making the under a plausible value play at +110.
What other players should bettors watch for prop opportunities?
Look at Dylan Guenther of the Arizona Coyotes – he’s listed for an Any‑Time Goal at +250. His 27‑goal rookie season and current 4.3 shots per game suggest a high upside, especially against teams with weak penalty kills.
How are sportsbooks adjusting lines after the first week?
Odds have shifted modestly – DraftKings kept Thompson’s line steady, while BetMGM nudged Holloway’s shots prop up by five cents after noticing Chicago’s recent power‑play struggles. Early‑season volatility means lines will continue to be tweaked as more data comes in.